JUDGEMENT DAY

Well, it's here. For the first time in Second City History (I think - too lazy to look), all 4 wild-card series are headed to game 5. A brief re-cap of how we got there.

Baltimore jumped out to a 2-0 lead on the road, bombing 2 Fightin Friar starters including Chico Molina (gm 1 8-3, gm 2 18-1). By the Friars came back on the road behind 8 innings of one-hit ball from Dude Wheeler in Game 3 and a 4-HR attack in Game 4. The road team in 4-0 in this series, which returns to SF for it's thrilling conclusion.

Scranton got 3 in the 9th on a Joe Clarke HR and stranded the potential tie run at 3B in Game 1 against Monterrey. 3 of the first 4 hitters homered in the 2nd as Monterrey cruised to a game 2 win over Neil Henderson. Game 3 dragged on for a grueling 13 innings with only 3 extra inning base runners until Jorge Torres got his first hit of the night, a 2-run, walk-off HR allowed by the creatively named Brad Bradley. Game 4 saw Monterrey escape elimination in a thrilling come-from-behind win with PR Andrew Boyd just beating a throw home to score the go-ahead run on PH Tito Kwon's double. Kudos to manager Brandon Taylor for those two substitutions.

In the NL, San Juan peppered Cheyenne with 19 hits to win gm 1 8-4. Then backup C Willard Hitchcock homered 3 times to secure 7-5 victory in game 2. But, Cheyenne battled back at home winning game 3 8-7 with the despite the potential tie run reaching first with nobody out in the 9th. Game 4 was a Seminole game all the way with Gergie Regan and Adam Henry combing to allow just 1 run on 8 hits.

Perhaps the wildest series has been between Helena and Sioux Falls. The exhausted Dakota sent 36-year old Bartolo Gonzalez to the mind in Game 1 and he rewarded them with shut out innings in a 5-0 win over 3-time Cy Young Rafael Aguilera. The Dakota took a 4-3 lead to the bottom of the 9th in Helena in game 2 before D'Angelo Castillo's 2-run, walkoff HR. Sioux Falls trailed 5-1 in game 3 before a furious comeback, topped off by a 4-run 8th to win 5-4. CF Alex Bennett made consecutive errors in the 9th to bring the tie run to the plate before Victor Chavez redeemed himself by escaping the jam (he had blown game 2). Game 4 once again saw Aguilera on the hill, but he left with the Dakota leading 4-3. However, back-to-back HR's in the 8th and a 3-run 9th salted away the win for the Hound Dogs. Sioux Falls ace, Paul Rhodes takes the hill for the first time in a win-or-go-home game 5 in Helena.

Playoff Preview Season 13

Well, an exciting finish to the regular season saw Mexico City sweep San Juan amidst calls for better insurance to secure a bye and the #2 seed in the NL. Meanwhile, Las Vegas, Helena, Sioux Falls, and Cheyenne all won must-win 162nd games. This completed 6 game streaks to finish the season for both Cheyenne and Sioux Falls. The upshot was that Las Vegas was eliminated on a tie-breaker yielding these first round matchups.

Odds are to win league pennant, all rankings are within league unless otherwise noted.

American League
#6 Scranton Nittany Lions 10-1
Record: 95-67 (AL 2nd wild card)
Offense: 8th: 962 R, .265 Ave (2nd fewest SB)
Defense: 8th: 868 R, 4.89 ERA (244 HR allowed worst of AL playoff teams)
History: 5th consecutive and 6th overall appearance, best finish: WS loser in Season 11
vs.
#3 Monterrey Conquistadors 12-1
Record: 97-65 (winner AL South)
Offense: 7th: 963 R, .295 Ave (.364 OBP trails only KC)
Defense: 6th: 841 R, 4.77 ERA (tandem rotation rocks conventional wisdom)
History: 12th appearance, 9th division title, best finish, WS loser in Season 6

Outlook: Monterrey's tandem rotation meets surprising entrant, with 8th ranked O & D. WCM PICK: Monterrey
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bye
#2 Kansas City Blues 5-2
Record: 102-60 (winner AL North)
Offense: 2nd: 1056 R, .305 Ave (207 HR fewest of playoff teams)
Defense: 3rd: 800 R, 4.56 ERA (.422 Slg allowed & 1123 K's best in AL)
History: 2nd consecutive division title (5 overall), 6 total appearances, best finish: lost ALCS season 11
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#5 Baltimore Dead Homies 8-1
Record: 99-63 (AL 1st wild card)
Offense: 6th: 986 R, .282 BA (219 SB 2nd in AL)
Defense: 4th: 820 R, 4.59 ERA (20 Blown Saves worst among AL playoff teams)
History: 5th consecutive wild card, 10th overall appearance, best finish: WS loser, seasons 2 and 12
vs.
#4 San Francisco Fightin Friars 3-1
Record: 94-68 (winner AL West)
Offense: 5th: 991 R, .293 Ave (hardest AL team to K - 904)
Defense: 1st: 771 R, 4.40 ERA (fewest HR all)
History: 2nd consecutive division title, 2nd appearance, best finish, lost in ALCS Season 12

Outlook: San Fran's excellent pitching and defense meet the speed of Baltimore WCM Pick - Baltimore
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bye
#1 Richmond Confederates 3-1
Record: 107-55 (winner AL East)
Offense: 3rd, 1050 R, 2.83 Ave (337 HR lead league)
Defense: 2nd, 774 R, 4.44 ERA (53-64 SV, tops in AL)
History: 5th division title, 8th consecutive appearance (8 overall), best finish: WS Champs season 9
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National League
#6 Sioux Falls Dakota (15-1)
Record: 89-73 NL 2nd wild card by virtue of tie-breaker over Las Vegas
Offense: 3rd: 831 R, .263 Ave (129 SB 2nd among NL playoff teams)
Defense: 11th: 751 R, 4.30 ERA (219 HR allowed 3rd worst in NL)
History: 1st wild card after 12 consecutive division titles, best finish: WS Champs in Season 7 and 10
vs.
#3 Helena Hound Dogs 9-1
Record: 90-72 Winner NL North
Offense: 11th: 735 R, .265 Ave (193 HRs last among playoff teams, and better only than Pittsburgh)
Defense: 5th: 673 R, 3.73 ERA (172 HR allowed, best in NL)
History: 1st division title, 4th playoff appearance, best finish: never won a division series

Outlook: Exhausted Dakota rotation takes on best pitcher in the game in Aguilera. WCM PICK - Helena
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Bye
#2 Mexico City Bandejos 2-1
Record: 95-67 Winner NL South
Offense: 1st: 869 R, .275 Ave (255 HRs 18 better than any other in NL)
Defense: 2nd: 654 R, 3.68 ERA (.240 OAV tops in NL)
History: 7th straight division title, 10th straight appearance, 10 overall appearances, best finish: WS Champs seasons 4, 5, 6, and 11
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#5 San Juan Crownrificos 5-1
Record: 94-68 1st NL Wild Card
Offense: 12th: 714 R, .257 Ave (25 SB half the next worst team in NL)
Defense: 3rd: 657 R, 3.69 ERA (1184 K's led NL)
History: 11th appearance (6 division titles, 5 wild cards), best finish: WS Champs SEason 1, 2, and 8
vs.
#4 Cheyenne Seminoles 5-1
Record: 90-72 Winner NL West
Offense: 10th: 750 R, .259 Ave (202 SB, 2nd in NL and tops in playoffs)
Defense: 1st: 638 R, 3.63 ERA (172 HR, 452 BB, .383 SLG all led NL)
History: 5th consecutive division title, 6th straight appearance (9 overall), best finish: Lost NLCS seasons 1 and 9

outlook: battle of bad hitting/great pitching teams comes down to the little things, injuries undermine experienced Crownrificos WCM PICK - Cheyenne
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Bye
#1 Burlington Bulldogs 3-1
Record: 98-64 Winner NL East (first non-NL South team with #1 seed in NL)
Offense: 8th: 776 R, .250 Ave (only Pawtucket had worse BA)
Defense: 4th: 666 R, 3.73 ERA (56 SV led NL)
History: 7th straight division title, 7 overall appearances, best finish: WS Champs Season 12

Showdown Series Wrap Up

Four huge series with pennant implication wrapped up this AM. Here's what went down.

Las Vegas swept the Cheyenne Seminoles bringing them to within a game of the NW West Lead. Moose Gates was stellar for 5 innings in Game 1 before allowing a crucial 3-run shot in the 6th to Livan Suarez. Game two saw the Double Downs overcome a 4-2 deficit to win 7-4. A 5-run 4th inning propelled the DD's to the sweep in Game 3.

Mexico City took 2 of 3 from Memphis propelled by 8 shutout inning by Brian Jung in the middle game.

The floundering San Juan Crownrificos righted the ship taking 2 of 3 from Nashville including a thrilling 4-run 9th to force extra innings in Game 1. The 'Rificos won on a bloop single in the 11th by Wil Curtis. Willard Hitchcock powered them to a win in the rubber game with a 3-run homer.

Finally, the Helena Hound Dogs swept the lifeless Sioux Falls Dakota. The Dakota could not find a clutch hit leaving 5 in scoring position in 3-0 loss to Matt Martin in game. Despite getting to ace Rafael Aguilera for 4 runs in game 2, the Dakota staff couldn't hold and 4 more were left in scoring position. Game 4 was more of the same as 5 hit day from D'Angelo Castillo paced a 17-hit attack that propelled the Hound Dogs to the sweep.

The race looks like this right now (1 game later):
NL North - Helena leads Sioux Falls by 2 games
NL East - Burlington has clinched and will get a bye (still fighting for #1 seed)
NL South winner will get the other bye. San Juan leads Mexico City by 1 with Nashville 7 back and Memphis 10 back with 13 to play.
The NL West lead is back to 2 for Cheyenne after Vegas couldn't build on the sweep.

NL Silliness

The NL playoff picture must have been taken with one of those cameras like Fred Flintstone used because it is BLURRY. Three of four divisions are currently within 3 games. Seven teams are within 3 games of a wild card spot. And there are only 27 games remaining.

In order of probability, you're contendors.

LOCKS
1. Burlington leads the NL East by 13 games and couldn't miss the playoffs if they tried. This will be a 7th straight division title for the defending WS champs. Burlington has the 3rd best pitching/D in the league and the 5th best offense.

2. San Juan has just a 3 game lead over Mexico City in the NL South, they're 7 ahead losing the wildcard. An arm injury has taken out staff ace Billy Hoffman causing a recent slide. Still, their 31-16 record in 1-run games makes them a dangerous, gritty team.

Looking Good
1. Mexico City leads the wild card race and trails San Juan by just 3 games. They've won 8 of 10 and have 10 games remaining against non-playoff contenders.

Leaders at the top of the Stretch
1. Sioux Falls holds just a 3 game lead in the division, and would be 1 up on the 2nd wild card spot. The recent loss of Mac Stevens raises a specter of doubt about a 13-th consecutive division title. The Dakota host Helena in a huge 3-game series starting 9/22.

2. Cheyenne leads the NL West by 2 games over arch rival Las Vegas. They've lost 10 of 14 extra inning games, but are the stingiest staff around. The Seminoles face perennial doormat Pawtucket for the next 7. They must travel to Sin City 3 starting 9/22 however.

3. Nashville is chasing its 4th wild card birth (they've never won the division), but face a brutal 17-game road trip that includes stops in San Juan (80-55), Toledo (65-70), Arizona (66-69), and Mexico City (77-58). They own the worst run differential of teams currently set to reach the playoffs (+53).

The Chase Group
1. Memphis has the poor luck of playing in the deepest division in Second City. They sit just 1 game out of the wild card. Creative management has started 11 different pitchers. The schedule is not kind as they face just 1 sub-.500 team the rest of the way.

2. Las Vegas has been to the playoffs 10 times in 12 seasons, but an impossibly bad 12-22 record in 1-run games reveals a team that hasn't come through in the clutch. They face potential rivals Cheyenne and Sioux Falls at home so a hot finish could find them with an 11th birth.

3. Helena is 3 out of the division and 2 out of the wild card. Three-time defending Cy Young Rafael Aguilera has struggled (by his standards). Helena plays their last 10 and 13 of their last 17 on the road. Of the contenders, only San Juan and Cheyenne have scored fewer runs.

4. Augusta faces a tall order. Of all the teams in the race, they're the only 1 without any shot at a division title. Augusta would have to make up 3 games and leap 4 teams to earn a wild card berth. They have 16 road games remaining, but they're strangely 15 games over .500 on the road and 10 under at home.

The Pretenders
1. Toledo is 9 games out of the North and 8 games out of the wild card. Not looking good.

2. Arizona is 7 games out in the West and 7 games out of the wild card. They face only 1 team under .500 the rest of the way so, no matter what, they will impact this race.

Pennant Race update

A quick update on the pennant races. All but 2 participants are decided. In the AL, Ottawa leads Kansas City by 2 games and Tacoma by 4 with 4 to play. That puts their magic # at 3.

In the NL, a crazy wild card race is shaping up. Las Vegas and Cheyenne are tied atop with West with the runner up likely to earn the top wild card (3 up with 4 to play). The 2nd wild card spot is a free-for-all with Arizona (won 6 of 10), Toledo (won 7 of 10), and Helena (lost 7 of 10) all tied at 86-72. San Juan trails them all by 2 games with 4 to play. Only 1 of those 4 teams will make the playoffs.

Playoff Preivew (NL)

1- Mexico City (119-43) - The Bandejos hit 36 more HR's than any other NL team and allowed 79 fewer runs than any other NL squad. That's how you win 119 games.
Key Player: The murderer's row of Alex Shibata, Jalal Rivera, and Del Gil each hit 50 HR's (exactly) this season.
Weakness: Only San Juan, Pittsburgh, and Memphis had fewer + plays in the NL. Ok, I'm stretching, they won 119 games, what should I say?
History: In the last 6 years, the Bandejos have won 3 division titles and 3 World Series. Oddly, the two have never occured in the same season. Will this be the year the division title jinx fails?

4- Burlington (74-88) - Only Sioux Falls had fewer - plays than the Bulldogs but finishing 4th from the bottom in runs scored and with the worst record ever to make the playoffs tags them as a longshot.
Key Player: The Bulldogs might start sub .500 pitchers in the first two games of the series, so slugger Miguel Gutierrez better come through against the Crownrificos.
Weakness: Closer Mateo Mairena was a stellar 32-36 in save opportunities, but the rest of the pen managed to blow 16 leads late in games.
History: This is a 3rd straight division title for the Bulldogs, but a first round matchup with defending champ San Juan followed by a potential date with the powerful Bandejos makes them the longest of longshots.

5- San Juan (103-59) - The Crownrificos are back to defend their WS title (their 3rd in 8 years). They've scored more runs than any NL team, but do so without running. If fact, no team stole fewer bases the San Juan's 63.
Key Player: A balanced offense saw 11 players hit double digit HRs, but Lenny Ohman will be counted on to make key starts after Cy Young candidate Phil Martin.
Weakness: This team plays awful defense. It's not that they make errors, it's that they just don't get to balls. They finshed ahead of only Memphis is + plus and - plays. Perhaps nowhere is the lack of range more apparent than in CF where Felix Turner lumbers around.
History: They've never missed the playoffs and have won 3 WS titles. Interestingly, they either win the WS or fail to get out of the Division Series, so there fate may decided early, particularly in a looming 2nd round matchup with arch-rival Mexico City.

2- Sioux Falls (99-63) - The Dakota are arguably the best fielding team in the playoffs and they can pitch too with Bartolo Gonzalez and Paul Rhodes forming a dominating 1-2 punch. However, the lineup doesn't exactly strike fear into opponents, finishing a middling 7th in the NL in runs scored. Only San Juan stole fewer bases.
Key Player: 3b Jesus Astacio had a breakout year. He must be a run producer in the playoffs for the Dakota to succeed.
Weakness: They just don't hit enough, primarily because the top of the order has lacked consistency and performance throughout the season.
History: The Dakota have won their division every year, but are just 1 for 4 in trips to the league championship series. In the past, the bullpen has failed in the post-season, will this year's acquisitions help break that trend?

3- Cheyenne (95-67) - The Seminoles hit just 176 HRs but managed to finish 4th in the NL in runs scored because they led the league in batting average and stole the 2nd most bases in the NL.
Key Player: C Bart Carlyle can dominate a game, especially if speed merchants Ichiro Kuo and Sherman Prince manage to reach base.
Weakness: The bullpen is a mess. "Closer" Adam Edwards boasts a 6.63 ERA and the team blew 23 saves this year.
History: Cheyenne is in the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years but they've yet to make an LCS. However, this is the first time they'll avoid the NL South powerhouses in rounds 1 and 2.

6- Helena (93-69) - Nobody topped the 96 quality starts of the Helena rotation. Will their 5th in the NL scoring offense be enough?
Key Player: Curtis James and Carl Prince, Helena's two young starters must keep the team in the game until their balanced but unintimidating offense can give them a chance.
Weakness: They don't like to walk and the team's .339 OBP is far and away the worst in the playoffs.
History: The Hound Dogs finally return to the playoffs after a 7-year abscense. Can they scratch the itch?

Fearless predictions: Burlington get's swept after almost deciding to forfeit their opening round series when more tickets are sold to Crownrifico hooligans than locan Burlingtonites for the home games. Cheyenne and Helena play a knock-down, drag-out series that turns on Cheyenne's ability to run on Helena's battery. The Seminoles sneak through on experience. Mexico City overcomes the division title jinx by eliminating San Juan but is stunned by Cheyenne in LCS.