Season 7 Surprises, Part Three (starting pitchers)

Every team is always on the lookout for starting pitching. When something clicks, and a pitchers unexpectedly contributes, it can help a team immensely. Surprise pitching performances aren't easy to come by, but Season 7 has seen a few.

Daniel Cox Rochester Rockets Age: 28 B/T: L/L Born: Lakeville, MN Position(s): P (SP3) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Daniel Cox had a great year in Season 4, going 16-4 with 3.43 ERA. Since then, he's been a solid, if unspectacular performer, going 26-13, with an ERA just over 5.00 in seasons 5-6. He's been a monster this season, going 12-0 in 18 starts, with a 4.19 ERA. He's allowing less than a hit per inning and is posting the best strikeout rate of his career (106K's in 118 IP). This is the first year of a 4-year, $24 million deal for Cox, Rochester Rockets couldn't be happier with his production.

Curtis Towers Sioux Falls Dakota Age: 29 B/T: R/R Born: New Lisbon, WI Position(s): P (SP4) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The Sioux Falls Dakota claimed Curtis Towers off waivers late in season 6. Towers, then 28 years-old, had posted an ERA of 8.13 out of the bullpen for the Texas Riders. Towers post a 3-21 (11.52 ERA) record in Season 4 while making his major league debut. After a 6-15, 5.88 performance in Season 5, the Riders had seen enough. The once promising Towers was banished to the pen where he went 3-7 with that 8.13 ERA. When the Riders put him on waivers, there were big questions as to whether anyone would give him another shot. When Towers walked into the Sioux Falls clubhouse, pitching coach Sean Adams was the first to greet him. Adams worked closely with Towers and he went 4-4 with a 3.93 ERA in 9 starts. After completely overhauling Towers mechanics, and convincing him to trust his defense, Towers won a spot in the Dakota rotation in the spring. Towers lost his first start of Season 7, allowing 6 runs in just 5 2/3 innings. Doubts had to be creeping into his mind.

Then something clicked. Towers threw 6 scoreless innings in each of his next two starts. He got the win in 5 straight and 6 of 7, making the All-Star team. He's thrown at least 5 innings in every outing, and hasn't yielded more than 4 runs in a single game since that first outing. Now it's likely that Towers will be throwing game 1 or 2 of a playoff series. "I owe my career to Sean Adams." His agent owes Adams a thing or two as well. Tower will make $1.425 million in this his first arbitration season. You can count a far bigger payday in the near future if his success continues.

Graceland

The Nashville Harmonies, firmly planted in 3rd place in the NL South, have won 31 or 55 games at home in Nashville. However, the road has not been nearly as friendly to the Harmonies, as they've won just 20 of 56 road contests. What could possibly explain it?

Harmonie President Tom Drennan had this to say, "In a word, it's Elvis. There's a reason we're the only team in the league that wears Blue Suade Shoes. When we're on the road, we're stuck wearing grey, which the King would never have approved of. We train in Memphis, just 2 blocks from Graceland. Our players meditate there prior to every home game and we take a team bus from Memphis to Nashville. We just can't find the same kind of connection on the road, even at the Heartbreak Hotel."

Harmonie players echoed Drennan's sentiments. Relief pitcher Keith Webster was born in Prinsburg, MN but he's been an Elvis lover since birth. "My mom actually named me Elvis, but my dad said 'Don't Be Cruel', so Elvis is only my middle name. Playing in Nashville is a dream come true, and the ladies here really love the lamb chops. I just don't get that kind of respect on the road."

Keith Webster Nashville Harmonies Age: 29 B/T: R/R Born: Prinsburg, MN Position(s): P (LRB) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Long time Harmonie reliever Douglas Clark is another huge Elvis fan. "I've made over ten million dollars in Nashville. I'd trade it all to have the voice of the king. Instead, I'll have to settle for his looks." Clark wouldn't comment on a reported restraining order filed by Priscilla Presley.

Douglas Clark Nashville Harmonies Age: 36 B/T: L/L Born: Donnellson, IA Position(s): P (LRB) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

The season continues for the Harmonies and they're not likely to turn it around on the road until they play in Las Vegas. Unfortunately for the Harmonies, they're not scheduled to 'Viva Las Vegas' until next season.

Season 7 Surprises, Part Two

Atlanta's Stone O'Neil is taking a big step forward in Season 7.

Stone O'Neil Atlanta INFUEGO Age: 29 B/T: R/R Born: Simi Valley, CA Position(s): 1B/3B/COF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

After an impressive Season 1 as a 23-year old, O'neil had become a slugger that strikes out too much and doesn't get on base. He's still not Adam Dunn, but with a batting average hanging in the .260s and 39 HR's (one short of his best since Season 1), he's turning into a difference maker.

Rochester's Matt Andrews has traveled a hilly course through HBD.

Matt Andrews Rochester Rockets Age: 28 B/T: R/R Born: Tucson, AZ Position(s): 2B/1B/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

After blasting 25 HRs and driving in 86 runs in Season 3, Andrews been demoted to the minors for parts or two seasons and failed to hold down a starting job while getting less than 350 ABs in each of the last two Seasons. Now, the Tucson native has finally put it all together, hitting .317 with 24 HRs (one short of career high) in 82 games with the Rochester Rockets. The Rockets are using Andrews at both 3B and 1B with the occasional start in LF and he hasn't disappointed. His 82 RBI's and 24 SB have been critical to the Rochester offense that relies on both power (league leading 235 HRs) and speed (league leading 158 SBs) to score more runs (289) than any other team in Second City.

Season 7 Surprises, Part One

Today's post is the first in a series of profiles on players having breakout seasons. They include both rookies and veterans that are far exceeding their productions levels of the past.

Ivan Barrios Scranton Nittany Lions Age: 23 B/T: R/R Born: Villa Clara, CU Position(s): SS/IF/OF View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Ivan Barrios of the Scranton Nittany Lions has made a big splash on the scene as a rookie. Barrios, signed an $11 milllion deal out of Villa Clara, Cuba in Season 4, had a solid minor league career in which he hit .308, including an impressive .362 in Low A as a 20 year-old. He set a career mark with 15 HRs at AAA last year (587 Abs). In just 78 games (326 Abs) this season, Barrios is hitting .350 with 14 HRs. While he was primarily a SS in the minors, Barrios has excelled in a Ryan Freel-like role for the Lions, starting in CF, LF, and 3B while making just 1 error.


Another rookie making a splash is Rule V draftee Eddie Wathan of the Houston Heavy Hitters.

Eddie Wathan Houston Heavy Hitters Age: 22 B/T: R/R Born: Wilmot, SD Position(s): 2B/C/IF/OF/DH View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Wathan, drafted in the 3rd round in Season 3 by San Diego, was plucked from the St. Louis Hell Hogs by the Heavy Hitters in this years Rule V draft despite never having played above AA. The Hitters were convinced that back-to-back .350+ seasons for the Colorado Springs Low A franchise and an impressive .341 at AA last year were no fluke. Wathan continues to excel with a .346 average, good for 10th in the league in 309 ABs this year. A Lo-A gold glove 2b in Season 5, Wathan has also excelled in the utility role, starting games at 2B, 3B, and SS for Houston.

MID TERM TEAM REPORT CARD

Hey guys I made a way to evaluate our teams at the halfway point 81 games.
This is how it works.
There are six player types and the team stats that represent those types. Then each team's player type is graded from 69 (D-) to 100 (A++) or basically (1-32). The final average of all of the player types grades and GPA are summed up in the World Series grade.

Follow this example:
TONY GWYN % calculated from
H% - HITS/PA
BB% - WALKS/PA
SOINV% - PA-SO/PA

BABE RUTH % FROM
2B% - DOUBLES/PA
HR% - HR/PA
IBB% - IBB/BB

VINCE COLEMAN % FROM
3B% - TRIPLES/PA
SB% - SB/PA
SPDH% - BUNT HIT+INFIELD HIT/PA

GREG MADDUX % FROM
CG% - COMPLETE GAMES/GAMES PLAYED
QS% - QUALITY STARTS/GAMES PLAYED

MARIANO RIVERA % FROM
SV% - SAVES/SAVE OPP
IRST% - (INHERITED RUNNERS - INHERITED RUNS SCORED)/INHERITED RUNNERS

BROOKS ROBINSON % FROM
PLUS% - PLUS PLAYS/GAMES PLAYED
CS% - CAUGHT STEALING % BY CATCHER
GM-E% - ERRORS/GAMES PLAYED INVERSED

WORLD SERIES GPA-GRADE
AVERAGE OF ALL 6 PLAYER TYPES



FRANCHISE GWYNN RUTH COLEMAN MADDUX RIVERA BROOKS WORLD SERIES
Rochester Rockets A+ B++ A+ A+ D++ A++ B++
Wichita Shockers A- A A B+ B A- B++
Houston Heavy Hitters A++ A+ A+ C+ B++ C- B+
Mexico City Bandejos B++ B+ C+ A A++ B B+
Richmond Confederates A A++ B+ C++ B C++ B+
San Juan Crownrificos B+ B++ D++ A- B+ A+ B+
Cheyenne Seminoles B+ A C- A- B- A B+
Sioux Falls Dakota B++ B D+ A+ C+ A++ B
Monterrey Conquistadors A C- A D- A+ B++ B
Helena Hound Dogs D+ D++ B- A A- A+ B
Salem Grand Salamies A+ A- B++ C C C B-
Burlington Bulldogs D D++ A- A++ B+ B++ B-
Scranton Nittany Lions B C B C- A+ B+ B-
Las Vegas Double Downs B- C+ D- A++ A++ B- B-
Boise Flyers C A- C++ D++ A B+ B-
Toledo Boonse Farmers C- A++ D B- C+ A B-
Cincinnati Bangers A- B- A++ D++ D+ C++ B-
Texas Riders C+ B C B++ B- D+ C++
Nashville Harmonies D- B- B++ B- C++ C+ C+
Colorado Mountain Oysts A++ D+ A++ C D- D C+
New York Clippers C++ A+ C+ C+ C- D C+
Chicago Chicago Gangsrs B- C++ D B D+ B C+
Pawtucket Quahog Crush C++ C++ A- D- C- C C+
St. Louis Hell Hogs C- D- B+ D A- B- C+
Los Angeles banditos D++ B+ C++ B++ D++ D- C+
Kansas City Monarchs D+ C+ C D+ A D++ C
Vancouver Jets D++ C B D C++ D++ C-
Washington D.C. Honor D- D- D- B+ C A- C-
Honolulu Dolphins B D D++ C++ D C- C-
Augusta Storm C D D+ B D C+ C-
Atlanta INFUEGO D C- C- D+ B++ D- D++
Santa Fe Fire Hawks C+ D+ B- C- D- D+ D++


If anyone wants I can send them the Excel file that shows all of the stats behind this. Just email me at darrenmaybee@gmail.com

-Darren

Translated Career ERA Projection

I have been working on a statistic translation using HBD ratings that would approximate a reasonable ERA projection over a HBD career.
I thought a tool like this would be useful for evaluations of trades, prospects, and salary determinations. I have taken five of the core pitcher ratings that are scaled from (0-100).

CONTROL
LEFT DOMINANCE
RIGHT DOMINANCE
VELOCITY
GROUNDBALL/FLYBALL RATIO

I then subtracted the rating of each from the maximum of 500 total (five categories at all 100). Then we divided this number by 100 for translation to ERA range numbers. Lastly we added 2.50 as the baseline lowest career ERA imaginable.
If you take a look Maddux (3.11), Clemens (3.12), and Pedro (2.80), it is extremely hard to have career ERAs below 3.00 and 2.50 even tougher (Cy Young 2.63). Therefore adding 2.50 to the previous calculation gets us to "reasonable" ERAs.

Follow this example below:

Gary Keller Washington D.C. Honor and Courage Age: 28 B/T: L/L Born: Lakewood, CO Position(s): P (P) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Gary Keller, SP, Washington D.C.
CON / L / R / VEL / GB
79 / 58 / 55 / 50 / 75

PROJECTED TRANSLATED CAREER ERA = [(500-79-58-55-50-75)/100 + 2.50] = 4.33
REAL CAREER ML ERA THROUGH 4 SEASONS = 4.37

Here is another example for one of the best pitchers in the league

Lenny Ohman San Juan Crownrificos Age: 31 B/T: R/R Born: Woodstown, NJ Position(s): P (SP2) View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Lenny Ohman, SP, San Juan
CON / L / R / VEL / GB
87 / 83 / 92 / 72 / 43

PROJECTED TRANSLATED CAREER ERA = [(500-87-83-92-72-43)/100 + 2.50] = 3.73
REAL CAREER ML ERA THROUGH 6 SEASONS = 3.33

Of course as I said in my other translation post. I'm sure the system was not designed this way. There are many factors involved in all aspects of the game that affect career stats. However, I think this translation statistic can serve as a quick way to show possible or potential career era as you evaluate the whole picture.Run the numbers on some of your players and see what you get.

NL South Top 10 Prospects

1) Mexico City Bandejos

Franchise Overview: The reigning three time World Series champs show no sign of letting up in the future as they have one of the strongest farm systems in the league. The major league starting lineup only contains two players over the age of 27, including 24 year old perennial MVP canditate Alex Shibata. Three of Mexico City's starting pitchers are 27 or under and only the closer is over 30 in the bullpen. The farm system is also stacked with future hitting and pitching stars lead by newly acquired Brian Jung who is not eligble for this list.

Top Prospects

#1: P Willie Velazquez (23) - As he has at every level, Willie is currently dominating AAA with 1.86 ERA. Willie tops out at 98 MPH and has a plus curve ball and slider. Willie also has very good control and projects to be the ace of the Bandejos within 3 years.

#2: 2b/LF Jalel Rivera (23) - Jalel was taken with the 15th pick of the season 2 draft. He has tremendous power and has already hit 248 minor league homeruns including a monsterous season 5 where he hit .345 with 70 hrs and 212 rbis. Jalel should be in the majors already but is blocked by Mexico City's major league talent. He projects to a 50-60 hr guy with the endurance of Cal Ripken.

#3: LF Ricardo Vazquez (21) - Ricardo is an international signing from Cuba. He has been an all star both minor league seasons and hit .381 last season. He is ready for the bigs right now at 21 and should be an on base machine and could challenge for a number of batting titles.

#4: 2b Aaron Pratt (21) - Aaron was drafted in the supplemental round of season 4. He is another typical Bandejo Ball player who should hit for a very high average. Aaron has tremendous speed and will most likely replace Michael Daughtery as Mexico City's leadoff man soon as he is also ready at the tender age of 21. Aaron also has a very good glove.

#5: RP Will Nicholson (23) - Will leads a strong class of Bandejo young relievers. Will is the early favorite to be the future closer. He has an outstanding sinker and can throw almost every day.

#6: SP Rob Andrews (23) - Andrews was a first round pick in season 5 and was acquired from Nashville late last season for top prospect Terrell Cox. Andrews throws in the low 90s and has one of the best curveballs in the minors. He projects to be the number 3 starter behind Velazquez and Jung but could easily be a number 2 for most teams.

#7: RP Rob Shields (22) - Shields was recently called up to the show to help out the major league pen. He has a dominating 4 seam fastball and is also a workhorse who is second in line to Nicholson for future closer.

#8: LF Anthony Moore (19) - Moore was Mexico's first round pick last season. He is also extremely fast and due to his great contact and batting skills, he could easily hit .340 in the majors. It would not be suprising to see him in the top 10 in average for years to come. His main weakness is a lack of stamina.

#9: C Eddie Whitaker (24) - Eddie is a very powerful catcher. He recently suffered a serious back injury which has jeopardized his prospect status. If he comes back strong he could be a 40 HR guy behind the plate.

#10: RP Dan Morton (20) - Morton is another minor league closer who is a workhorse with two outstanding pitches. He will join Shields and Nicholson to form the Mexican version of the nasty boys.

#11 - 15: 1b Flash Coco (25), SP Anthony O'Toole (23), RF Pete Richard (21), 1B Frank Shipley (22), C Marvin Leary (19)


2) Nashville Harmonies

Franchise Overview: Nashville recognized the tough competition it faced in the NL South and traded the team's best player Bartolo Gonzalez in an effort to restock the farm system. Nashville's has been a wild card the past couple seasons but has a difficult task in contending with San Juan and Mexico City. Nashville seems to have a plan by going with strong defense up the middle. The system is good enough to keep the Harmonies in the playoff hunt.

Top Prospects

#1: SP Rafael Rosado (22) - Rafael was an international signing in season 5 who is enjoying success in his first season in the bigs. His quick ascension has proven warranted with a 3.14 ERA. He doesn't throw very hard but has 3 plus pitches. He should be the ace of the staff for many years.

#2: 3b Terrell Cox (23) - Terrell was acquired in a top prospect swap from interdivision rival Mexico City for Rob Andrews. Cox is an excellent defender who could play SS. He also has great speed and an above average bat who has hit .336 in his minor league career.

#3: SP Moose Cohen (21) - Moose was drafted in the first round last season and was quickly posting a 2.41 ERA in AA by the end of his first season. Moose has a hard sinking fastball ala Kevin Brown and should be capable of throwing 200 solid innings a season. He projects as the Harmonies future #2 starter.

#4: C Kennie Rekar (20) - Ken was the 13th pick of this years draft. He is an average defender but has the tools to be an outstanding hitter with a great eye.

#5: RF Manny Hemingway (22) - Manny was a second round pick this season from the University of Nebraska. He led the Big 12 in homers the past two seasons. He has tremendous power and kills right handed pitching. He was known for having a number of six toed cats in college. He should be the Harmonies cleanup man by season 9.

#6: SP Rusty Dupler (22) - Rusty is a crazy man from the Ryne Duren school of pitching. He throws 99 and has a nasty curveball. He is a horse and its a good thing because he could throw 110 pitches by the sixth inning since he doesn't exactly have the best of control. If he can somehow harness his location he could become a monster.

#7: 1b Orlando Morris (18) - Orlando is a high average hitter with ok power. He projects to be a Hal Morris type hitter in the majors. He was signed this season as an international from Mexico. He has started very slowly hitting only .100 in high A so far. He probably belongs in Rookie league but the Harmonies have a policy of rushing guys through the system.

#8: SS Jamie Chong (20) - Chong was acquired in the blockbuster deal for former ace Bartolo Gonzalez. Jamie is a top notch defender with a cannon for an arm. How much he will hit is subject to great debate and his current .236 average in AAA does not bode well for the future.

#9: RP Wilfredo Coronado (20) - Scouts see Fredo as the closer of the future for the Harmonies. He is very raw and his skills have not equated to success yet in the minors. He is strictly a one inning guy but he can bounce back to throw 4 days in a row.

#10: RF Einar Guerrero (22) - Einar can flat out fly. He will consistently steal 40 bags in the majors. He doesn't have great bat skills but gets a lots of infield hits. He is mainly on this list because he hails from the water park capital of the world Wisconsin Dells.

#11 - 15: 2b Gene Moore (26), SS Ricardo Rivera (23), SP Les Barber (24), RP Yamid Tarasco (18), 2b Armando Calles (18).

3) San Juan Crownrificos

Franchise Overview: One of the most successful franchises in Second City history is having another fantastic season with the majors best record. Some of Crowns biggest stars are getting older but have not yet shown their age. Rumors of the franchise being for sale have not be denied by current owner Wang. San Juan has elected not to participate in the international market which has hurt their minor league system though recently promoted Billy Hoffman and David Carassco are elite young players.

Top Prospects

#1: SP Billy Hoffman (23) - Billy was the number one pick of the draft in season 2. He is about to lose his rookie status but he compiled and amazing 8-0 record in 9 major league starts last year with an era of 1.84. He is a legitimate #1 starter whose only question mark is his fair health.

#2: SS Will Curtis (20) - Will was a first round pick in the most recent draft. He is a great defender with excellent bat control and a great eye. He lacks any type of power but if he reaches his comparables of Omar Vizquel, San Juan will be quite pleased.

#3: 1b Glenn Foster (19) - Crown's first round pick in season 6 could become the next Max Lima. Not only does he have decent power but he should hit for a very high average. A number of .350 seasons are in his future along with a couple batting titles.

#4: RP Brian Burns (22) - The son of former White Sox character Britt Burns is one of Crownrificos excellent minor league relievers. Brian is particularly nasty on lefthanders and has a plus plus curveball. He is often compared to Jesse Orosco.

#5: C Ron Hurst (22) - Ron is not only a very good defensive catcher but he should also be an above average hitter. He manhandles left handed pitching and has a good eye. He has a career .339 average in 3 minor league seasons.

#6: DH Miller Prinz (20) - The second round pick from this years excellent draft class hails from Schoolcraft College. Miller is awful defensively but can swing the lumber. He projects to be a Jack Cust type player. He is the most likely player to be traded on this list as San Juan plays without the DH.

#7: LF Paul Drabek (20) - Paul was a third round pick this year from the University of Arkansas Fort Smith. While he has yet to use a wooden bat, he does look to be a top hitter as he lead all junior college players in the Bi-State Conference in hitting. He has had a number of significant injuries in his career, which limits his ranking on this list.

#8: RP Harry Cerveza (24) - Not only does Harry have one of the best names in the game but he also projects to be a dominant closer if he can improve his slider. Crownrifico fans are looking forward to dropping some hair clippings into their ice cold beers, preferably blonde ones.

#9: SP Bing Miller (22) - Bing was a supplemental pick in season 5. Bing has a 4.09 ERA in 3 minor league seasons and projects as a 4th starter for San Juan. Rumors that owner Wang fired his scout when he found out Bing was from Georgetown, Ohio and not Georgetown University have been confirmed.

#10: RP Leo Myers (24) - Have you sensed a pattern here? San Juan is relief pitching heaven. Amazingly Crown has dealt a number of good relievers in the past year. Leo has great control of his top notch sinker and will be an excellent set up man.

#11 - 15: LF Felipe Ontiveras (25), RP Junior Molina (22), RP Bing Mays (22), RP Lyle Richardson (20), 1b Rock Fassero (22)

#4) Atlanta Infuegos

Franchise Overview: Things are looking up for the NL South's doormat for a number of seasons. Atlanta's fourth place prospect ranking in this division is misleading as the Infuegos previously took the questionable route of immediately promoting all top prospects to the majors. Atlanta has since wised up and put these players in the minors where they belong so they can properly develop. Since most of those players are not eligible for this list because they have lost their rookie status, this list is not as impressive as it should be. But take note fans, Atlanta has a bright future if management can continue its recent excellent moves.


Top Prospects

#1: SP Rudy Robinson (22) - The third pick of this years draft from the University of Akron should be a future ace. He is a guy who can give you 8 innings night after night. He has great control and outstanding stuff. If he can reach his high projections, he can easily match up with the other big time aces of the division rivals.

#2: RF Chad Wright (19) - Chad is easily Atlanta's best hitting prospect. He was the third pick of last seasons draft and benefitted from the new regime that doesn't rush prospects. Chad is an ironman who should be a .300 hitter for years to come.

#3: RP Lucas Hendrick (22) - A second round pick from LSU has a chance to be an elite closer. Scouts believe he will throw in the upper 90s with a top notch curve ball.

#4: SP Julio Ramos (21) - An international signing from Venezuela, Julio should be a very good major league starter. He has been bounced around from the majors to AA and was bombed in the bigs. If he can stablize in the minors, he should be a future #3 starter.

#5: SP Jack Driefort (23) - Darren's cousin received all the good health in the family. He was a first round pick in season 6. Darren throws in the low 90s and has 3 very good pitches. He should also be a mainstay in the Infuegos future rotation.

#6: 2b Joe Davis (19) - A very fast and excellent baserunner who could steal 50 or more in the majors. Joe needs to work on his slap hitting skills to become a decent leadoff man.

#7: 1b Manny Rivera (20) - Manny is a good power hitting first baseman. He should be able to play every day and could put up Mike Sweeney type numbers.

#8: 2b Andre Moore (21) - Andrew is a defensive wizard who could win mutiple Gold Gloves. If he can hit .260 he will be an asset for the Infuegos.

#9: DH Dicky Martin (20) - Dicky is a sloth without a position. He is pretty good with the stick, especially against right handers. He could eventualy be a pretty good pinch hitter and role player.

#10: 3b Chin-Fing Yosida (18) - Chin is currently playing SS in Low A but his future is at 3b. He is an average hitter with pretty good speed. He projects to be a faster version of Scott Brosius.

Not #11 - 15 but instead what should be Atlanta's top five - LF Jose Cordero (22), DH Al Escobar (22), SP Tim Atkins (25), C Wascar Lee (23), C Brendan Jackson (22)

NL South Top 10 Prospects

The Windy City Musings will present a series of articles on the top 10 prospects for each team. The first article of the series will concentrate on the NL South. Within each article, the teams will be listed in order of their overall farm system rankings. Only players with zero years of major league service will be considered.

HBD Translated AVG/OBP/SLG Formula

I have been working on a simple formula that comes close to translating AVG/OBP/SLG from the Projected Ratings within HBD. My formula is correlating the (0-100) rating scale to a 200 point range in the more familiar AVG/OBP/SLG averages. This is should explain what I mean.

CONTACT (0-100) = AVG (.150-.350)
BATTING EYE (0-100) = OBP (.250-.450)
POWER (0-100) = SLG (.400-.600)

Let's look at a player example:
Harry Rivera 2b 12 years:
Contact/Eye/Power
71/62/60
Career: .292/.374/.520
Rating Translated Prediction: .304/.376/.568
Difference:.012/.002/.048
Difference %: 3.95%/0.53%/8.45%

I ran the numbers for four more of my best players with at least 5 years of service.
I got the following average difference %
AVG/OBP/SLG
7.54%/13.78%/17.55%

While I know the designers of HBD did not make it this simple and some may say EYE does not directly correspond to OBP, I think this is a potentially useful tool to assess what a player is capable of doing in more familar AVG/OBP/SLG numbers. While any one year could have a spike up or down, I believe after a full career his numbers will get statistically very close to this translated rating prediction.

Try it on your own players projected ratings or current (>27 years) ratings.
Take the Contact Rating __ x 0.002 + 0.150 for the lowest possible batting average
Take the Eye Rating __ x 0.002 + 0.250 for the lowest possible on-base average
Take the Contact Rating __ x 0.002 + 0.400 for the lowest possible slugging average

I welcome any comments from what you guys might think of this formula.

Boswell picked 1st overall

The Sante Fe Fire Hawks nabbed pitcher Chris Boswell with the first overall pick. Family adviser Abdullah Woodward was confident that Boswell would agree to a deal in line with the $4 million bonus last year's top pick, Kevin Canseco signed for. Woodward has previously advised season 4 top overall pick, Brett Davis. No picks are expected to approach the record $16 million bonus paid by the Cincinnati to Manny Corey, the #5 pick in Season 4. Corey is hitting .295 with 10 HR's in this, his first big league season.

Boswell is a 5'10" lefty from St. Peter's, Missouri. Though undersized for a starting pitcher, Boswell generates enormous velocity, working at 91-93 and occasionally touching 95 mph with his fastball. Scouts have compared him to a young Francisco Liriano.

#1 Picks of the Past

With the Season 7 draft just around the corner we look back at #1 overall picks of the past.

Season 1 - Francis Bird (P), Las Vegas Double Downs - After becoming the first ever Second City draft pick Bird went 40-21 with a 2.70 ERA in 4 minor league seasons. He made 7 starts in a cup of coffee trip to the bigs in Season 4. Then he took home the NL Rookie of the Year award in Season 5, going 13-6 with a 3.12 ERA in 196 IP. Bird remains the ace of the 6 time division champion Double Downs.

Season 2 - Billy Hoffman (P), Chicago Hog Butchers - Huffman landed with Hog Butchers (now the Toledo Boones Farmers). He was dealt in Season 3 by then-owner texasviking of the short-lived Minnestoa Mighty Bats. The recipient was wang35 and the San Juan Crownrificos. In return the 'rificos sent Lucas Laxton (career .270 hitter for Toledo), Omar Sosa (currently unemployed, never played in bigs), and Jarret Graves (currently at AA for Atlanta, never saw the bigs) to the Bats. Huffman, a high school pick, went 64-15 in 5 minor league seasons (2.88 ERA). Since making his big league debut in season 5, Huffman is 13-1 with a 2.70 ERA for the Crownrificos. Season 7 looks to be his first year spent entirely in the bigs as a 23 year-old.

Season 3 - Tom Davidson (2b), Colorado Mountain Oysters - Davidson, the first college junior to be drafted #1 overall, shot through the minors and made his ML debut late in season 3, hitting .364 in 77 ABs. He's never returned to the minors, hitting .347 with 103 career homers. Last year was his finest season, posting a .376 average with 29 HRs and 136 RBIs. After making 39 errors as a rookie, Davidson has become a solid in unspectacular fielder in Colorado. He signed a 5-year, $39.5M contract extension this past off-season.

Season 4 - Brett Davis (SS), Scranton Nittany Lions - The Lions have treated Davis with kid-gloves, slowly bringing along the high school pick that just turned 21. Scouts consider him a can't-miss prospect with the chance to consistently hit 50+ HR's a season. Davis has hit .329 with 94 career minor league dingers. Some scouts feel that Davis will eventually end up at 3b after a 62 error season at AA in year 5. He settled down last year making just 19 errors at AAA and is expected to make his big league debut later this season as a SS.

Season 5 - Vernon Mota (P), Texas Riders - Mota blew through the minors making the RL all-star team in Season 5 and arriving in the bigs late in Season 6 following a 10-1, 3.29 performance at AA. The Riders are counting on him as a key part of their rotation going forward, though the 23 year-old continues to struggle in a hitter-friendly park, posting a 6-4 record and 5.52 ERA so far this season.

Season 6 - Kevin Canseco (2B), Honolulu Dolphins - The high school legend from tiny Woodbury, MN made a big splash winning the rookie league silver slugger in his first professional year. The Dolphins haven't been shy, starting the precocious youngster at AA where he hit .347 in 46 games this year before a promotion to AAA. He's just 9 games in at AAA but scouts expect big things from Canseco going forward though he's probably 2-3 years from making a meaningful contribution in the bigs.

Season 7 - ????

Welcome

The official blog of the Hardball Dynasty Second City World is here. Welcome to Windy City Musings.

In this space, you will find updates and commentary on the happenings in world Second City. Any owner interested in posting need only contact the commissioner, jwendt, to be added as a contributor.

Our first article will focus on the Season 7 draft.