Sunday, February 10, 2008

HBD Translated AVG/OBP/SLG Formula

I have been working on a simple formula that comes close to translating AVG/OBP/SLG from the Projected Ratings within HBD. My formula is correlating the (0-100) rating scale to a 200 point range in the more familiar AVG/OBP/SLG averages. This is should explain what I mean.

CONTACT (0-100) = AVG (.150-.350)
BATTING EYE (0-100) = OBP (.250-.450)
POWER (0-100) = SLG (.400-.600)

Let's look at a player example:
Harry Rivera 2b 12 years:
Career: .292/.374/.520
Rating Translated Prediction: .304/.376/.568
Difference %: 3.95%/0.53%/8.45%

I ran the numbers for four more of my best players with at least 5 years of service.
I got the following average difference %

While I know the designers of HBD did not make it this simple and some may say EYE does not directly correspond to OBP, I think this is a potentially useful tool to assess what a player is capable of doing in more familar AVG/OBP/SLG numbers. While any one year could have a spike up or down, I believe after a full career his numbers will get statistically very close to this translated rating prediction.

Try it on your own players projected ratings or current (>27 years) ratings.
Take the Contact Rating __ x 0.002 + 0.150 for the lowest possible batting average
Take the Eye Rating __ x 0.002 + 0.250 for the lowest possible on-base average
Take the Contact Rating __ x 0.002 + 0.400 for the lowest possible slugging average

I welcome any comments from what you guys might think of this formula.

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