Saturday, February 16, 2008

Translated Career ERA Projection

I have been working on a statistic translation using HBD ratings that would approximate a reasonable ERA projection over a HBD career.
I thought a tool like this would be useful for evaluations of trades, prospects, and salary determinations. I have taken five of the core pitcher ratings that are scaled from (0-100).

CONTROL
LEFT DOMINANCE
RIGHT DOMINANCE
VELOCITY
GROUNDBALL/FLYBALL RATIO

I then subtracted the rating of each from the maximum of 500 total (five categories at all 100). Then we divided this number by 100 for translation to ERA range numbers. Lastly we added 2.50 as the baseline lowest career ERA imaginable.
If you take a look Maddux (3.11), Clemens (3.12), and Pedro (2.80), it is extremely hard to have career ERAs below 3.00 and 2.50 even tougher (Cy Young 2.63). Therefore adding 2.50 to the previous calculation gets us to "reasonable" ERAs.

Follow this example below:
Gary Keller
Washington D.C.
Honor and Courage
Age: 28B/T: L/L
Born: Lakewood, CO
Position(s): P (P)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Gary Keller, SP, Washington D.C.
CON / L / R / VEL / GB
79 / 58 / 55 / 50 / 75

PROJECTED TRANSLATED CAREER ERA = [(500-79-58-55-50-75)/100 + 2.50] = 4.33
REAL CAREER ML ERA THROUGH 4 SEASONS = 4.37

Here is another example for one of the best pitchers in the league

Lenny Ohman
San Juan
Crownrificos
Age: 31B/T: R/R
Born: Woodstown, NJ
Position(s): P (SP2)
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Lenny Ohman, SP, San Juan
CON / L / R / VEL / GB
87 / 83 / 92 / 72 / 43

PROJECTED TRANSLATED CAREER ERA = [(500-87-83-92-72-43)/100 + 2.50] = 3.73
REAL CAREER ML ERA THROUGH 6 SEASONS = 3.33

Of course as I said in my other translation post. I'm sure the system was not designed this way. There are many factors involved in all aspects of the game that affect career stats. However, I think this translation statistic can serve as a quick way to show possible or potential career era as you evaluate the whole picture.Run the numbers on some of your players and see what you get.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

but does velocity really count if his main pitchers do not involve fastballs